Goldman Sachs is predicting good times ahead, for some at least, in the music industry. According to the 2025 edition of their annual Music In The Air report, global music revenue is set to double to $200 billion in the next ten years.
Great news, huh? Well, let’s look a little closer. Much of that potential for growth resides in a few key areas. One of these is streaming in so-called ‘emerging markets’, ie not the West, which contributed 60% of new subscribers in 2024. In these areas streaming penetration is just 8%, which the report estimates will rise to 14% in a decade, “which still leaves an untapped audience of billions.” The report suggests that “these markets are often more price sensitive, so music streamers may have to work harder to turn listeners into paying subscribers. But the process is underway.”
Another area for growth, the report suggests, lies in streamers raising prices. The average US consumer spends $69 a month on video streaming but just $14 on music. “Our analysts believe there will be more regular increases in the future,” the report says. “Thus far, music streaming has lagged on-demand video streaming in terms of price; in the US, the monthly subscription price for streaming video has been rising by 15% nearly every two years for the past decade, whereas music streaming prices have been largely stagnant.”
More explicitly, Goldman Sachs's Eric Sheridan says, “We see increased confidence among industry participants that price increases will happen every 12-24 months going forward.”
Streaming platforms, as we know, are not known for their generosity towards the people who actually provide their content: the musicians.
The third area for potential growth is by exploiting, sorry, targeting the ‘superfan’. These are the people who will pay more for premium audio quality, early access to merchandise and exclusive content. Goldman Sachs estimates that the average US ‘superfan’ spends $113 on live music and $68 on physical music per month – among ‘average’ consumers those figures are just $39 and $19.
“Our analysts estimate that monetising these superfans better could add $6.6 billion to the industry’s revenues by 2035 - a 21% uplift to paid streaming revenues,” the report concurs.
In terms of live music, Goldman Sachs predicts that a 7.2% growth rate between now and the end of the decade, “underpinned by demand from millennials and Gen Z”. Indeed, despite a lack of growth in the overall economy, ticket revenue grew 76% between 2019 and 2024 – despite a 50% rise in ticket prices – the average ticket price for a concert in one of the top 100 worldwide tours was $136 in 2024, compared to $91 in 2019.
So in conclusion, whilst a doubling of global music revenue (if it happens) is undoubtedly good news, it’s especially good news if you’re a streamer, Ticketmaster or an A-list artist. Whether there will be a trickle-down effect to those toiling away at the grassroots is much more open to doubt.
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